Asia Pacific Defence Reporter

Our previous analysis of the US Presidential election was wrong – and by a wide margin. Obviously there’s a huge level of anger, resentment and frustration in the American system. Donald Trump has won a bigger victory than in 2016 – and the consequences for Australia are unknown. Any Australian politician assuming it’s business as usual runs the risk of making a major mistake. What do we do if Donald Trump jacks up the cost of acquiring nuclear-powered submarines by a lot? Has anyone in Defence or the government thought through those consequences? And please don’t say it could never happen. A quick summary of SEA 3000 – and it’s between Germany and Japan. Then the Submarine Institute of Australia conference where Chief of Navy mistakenly re-read his 2023 speech and during which journalists were told they would be kicked out of the venue if they approached anyone at morning tea to say hello. The Virginia class program is in big trouble because of supply chain issues – but you will never hear that from an Australian official. Finally, Army’s campaign of deception about the performance of Black Hawk helicopters continues. Someone has to put a stop to this outrage – it’s wrong at every possible level. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

We start with Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy at the NPC last week and lots of stuff about extra missiles for the ADF. That’s all well and good – but these things are either fully imported or, at best, manufactured under license here with a few local components. There are no longer any sovereign Australian IP in weapons – we seem to have collectively given up on the idea of designing any ourselves. The latest from the mess that is AUKUS Pillar One. Then a few words about the shock cancellation of JP9102. There goes the last chance of any form of sovereign satellite communications capability – it’s back to bad old days of having to go cap in hand to the US for some bandwidth – and then being charged a fortune for it. Finally, the shortlist for SEA 3000 the General Purpose Frigates approaches – and golly gosh what an unmitigated disaster this project is. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode we have some truly stunning – and worrying – information that the rate of US nuclear powered submarine construction is slowing down, not speeding up. The information is on the public record and comes from the CEO of Electric Boat, Phebe Novakovic in a briefing for shareholders. The problem is with the supply chain – companies manufacturing critical components cannot keep up with the required rate and as a consequence both the Columbia class SSBNs and Virginia SSNs will be delayed. This must be worrying news for the RAN – and it seems astounding that there has been no reporting of note in Australia about a development that could completely derail AUKUS Pillar One. The US also seems to be counting on Australia lifting Defence expenditure so that it can afford these submarines without cutting other capabilities – but that is exactly what has already started to happen. Finally, Defence officials have once again managed to get their way and have hounded German shipbuilding company Luerssen out of Australia. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Last week saw a bit of extra good news for Ukraine with the announcement that Australia will donate 49 M1A1 Abrams Main Battle Tanks that are being retired from service. An extra 10 Abrams will be available for spare parts, or they could be returned to a usable condition. No matter how you look at this, it’s a significant contribution because while the tanks are a bit long in the tooth they are still a formidable capability, particularly against the ageing junk that Russia is now forced to field. Also last week saw a bit of coverage of the latest US Congressional Research Service report into AUKUS Pillar One – and it identifies a number of failures in the Australian process. Related to this, we are spending billions of dollars in WA getting ready for the deployment of US and possibly UK nuclear-powered submarines with no one doing the analysis of whether we should simply increase the size of that force for the defence of Australia. Finally some words about the company Austal – how come they are all of a sudden in such a privileged position? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

We start with a Canberra bubble story – but one with national implications – the strange tale of the former Chief of Staff to Defence Minister Richard Marles. The CoS of a Minister plays a vital role in the daily running of the office and has additional important duties such as liaising with the Department, other Ministers and various stakeholders. Without a competent CoS in place an office rapidly becomes dysfunctional. Then a few more words about the unfolding disaster of SEA 3000, which is coming up for some form of short listing in November. Also we are starting to receive some information about how much Australia has earned from the sale of Taipan helicopter spare parts. The answer is – probably zero. Unfortunately it looks like the Tiger Armed Reconnaissance helicopters are also being mismanaged and unless there’s an urgent change of direction they will similarly end up in landfill. They should instead be going to Ukraine and there’s a case study that needs to be read aloud to every person in Army connected with the destruction of the Taipan fleet. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

There are 5 ship designers in the running for the SEA 3000 General Purpose Frigate contract – and 2 of them are from South Korea. In this episode we discuss Hanwha Ocean, based on a visit to their extremely impressive facility at Okpo near Busan on the south coast of the country. However, we could not discuss their Australian bid because the government has banned companies from speaking with the media under threat that if they do so their participation in the competition will be instantly cancelled. This is to prevent any information about how badly this project is being bungled by the RAN ever reaching the Australian public. Even with that restriction there was still plenty to talk about, including Hanwha Ocean frigates for the Korean and Thai navies. Then a few words about industry policy, where the government of South Korea is doing the Australian government’s job for it. As promised, a few words about UK nuclear submarine projects – and they are struggling so badly with their own programs it is hard to see how they will ever manage to design and build SSN AUKUS. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Why does the Australian government show so little enthusiasm for increasing the amount of aid going to Ukraine? Doing so is overwhelmingly popular with about 80% of Australians in favour. However, it looks like the government and our officials are doing just enough to tick a few boxes. At a minimum a single person with a lot of authority needs to be put in charge of the aid program – and they need to get moving. Then a media trip to a factory in the Queensland town of Maryborough that manufactures 155mm artillery shells – and all of them are purchased by the German government before finding their way to Ukraine. A Joint Venture between Australian company NIOA and Germany’s Rheinmetall Waffe Munition, it could form an essential part of a sovereign 155mm projectile capability – but again that requires a decision followed by action. Finally a few words about AUKUS and Virginia class submarines – we do the maths and figure which ones we might receive. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

We return to some favourite themes: nuclear powered submarines; Taipan helicopters; and aid for Ukraine. But before that a few words about the Middle East and what looks to be a further deterioration in an already bad situation. Everyone shares blame, but it’s worth noting that major demographic changes mean that Israel is different from the country in the 1970s that many of us found inspirational. It must occur to people that there are some in Israel who don’t want peace with Hamas but will happily continue bombing Gaza until nothing remains. Equally, leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah don’t care how many of their own people die. After that, why cannot VADM Jonathon Mead – or the government - answer the simple question: what happens if the US cannot lift the production rate of Virginia class submarines to 2:33 per year.? It’s a very simple question without an answer. We conclude with updates on last year’s Taipan helicopter ditching and problems with the flow of aid to Ukraine. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is the Land Forces exhibition special feature with some random highlights from the show last week. These included an uncrewed 8-wheeled armoured ground vehicle enabled by AI and designed by BAE Systems to operate with conventional forces. Also SPEE3D, an Australian company using additive manufacturing to undertake in-field repairs. Despite international success – including sending units to Ukraine – do you think the Australian Army has bought any? A few words about Hanwha, the South Korean company that has gone from obscurity to now being the largest supplier, by dollar value, to the Army. They have announced that Sydney-based Advanced Navigation will become part of their global supply chains, which should be a huge boost to business. And some unexpected success – Chief of the Army has agreed to an interview to discuss the Taipan helicopter fiasco (my words, not his). Let’s hope other senior figures also push back against ridiculous Ministerial interference in what they can say in public. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The government and the Australian Submarine Agency are up to their usual tricks of minimising scrutiny by playing media favourites. Not only is this wrong in principle it’s a symptom of deeper problems in the ASA – and there will be a lot more coming out about that in the next few days. People who know what they are doing enjoy having their ideas challenged and it is generally the poor performers who prefer to hide. And with that in mind, our squabble with Army over the destruction of the Taipan helicopter fleet continues. Why does it matter any longer now that the damage has been done? Two reasons – this fiasco should never be repeated; and secondly, let’s have some accountability. Army have been concealing true support costs for years – and we blow the whistle on some of those. Finally, the General Purpose Frigate program and could we be seeing a tiny glimpse of sanity? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.