Confluence Podcasts

The changing face of war makes it difficult for investors to identify exactly when war begins, when it ends, and when the right time is to implement a war-time investment strategy. Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth joins Phil Adler to offer some guidance.

The recent rally in the price of uranium appears to be more than just a flash in the pan. Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to focus on a major reason for this development that may be somewhat overlooked.

The Japanese Nikkei 225 stock index was among the best performing in the world in 2023 and recently reached an all-time high. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss the reasons for the surge and whether there is room to grow from here.

Ukraine, Gaza, and Taiwan aren't the only hotspots in the world. In South America, oil-rich Venezuela is threatening its much smaller neighbor Guyana, which recently came into major oil reserves of its own. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to unravel the history of this dispute, discuss what's at stake for the US, and why investors should pay attention.

Sometimes words can be just as powerful or even more so than actions. Just consider the Federal Reserve. Fed officials can greatly influence investor behavior by the words they speak or write. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss how the Federal Reserve may be employing the spoken or written word, specifically with its forward guidance tool, to create a range for 10-year Treasury yields and how investors may profit as a result.

Could the defense industry, at some point, challenge technology for stock market leadership? Members from the Confluence macro team discuss why the rebirth of US nuclear deterrence policy appears to be a game changer on many levels.

In October 2023, the Asset Allocation Committee introduced an ETF focused on uranium and uranium producers into its mid-cap equity exposure as part of their regular quarterly update. The price of that ETF has surged since Confluence bought it, adding to the returns of the firm's Asset Allocation portfolios to date. Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins the podcast to explain what drove Confluence to make this new investment and what they expect from it in the future.

China's economic problems seem to be numerous. They include falling consumer prices, a struggling stock market, plunging property values, sluggish growth, and rising debt. Is current Chinese leadership to blame for these problems, or is it something deeper? Confluence Advisory Director of Market Strategy Bill O'Grady joins Phil Adler to discuss why addressing this question is important.

The rising federal budget deficit begs a key question with major implications for investors. How painful will it be for the government to finance all that debt or will there be enough buyers of all those new US Treasurys to prevent an ugly turn for the markets? Confluence Investment Management Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss how fixed income investors might navigate this changing environment.

In this episode, Confluence reviews the Asset Allocation rebalance for the first quarter of 2024, featuring a brief economic analysis and insights on asset class and security selection for the firm’s Asset Allocation portfolios. Joining the podcast for this recap is Kaisa Stucke, analyst and chair of the Asset Allocation Committee.