Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Against the backcloth of higher rates for longer, many of the Australian banks will provide trading updates over the next couple of weeks. As a group, they currently have the highest set of valuations seen for decades, but then, their earnings have held up relative to expectations. So what is ahead? And are all banks … Continue reading "Banking On Profitability, If You’re Big Enough!"

This is our latest weekly market update, starting in the US, UK, then Europe, Asia and Australia, and also covering Gold. Oil and Crypto. A comprehensive round-up of what is happening! We are, it seems entering the twilight zone, as the scent of stagflation is spreading, as inflation becomes increasingly sticky, especially in services, while … Continue reading "The Scent Of Stagflation Hangs Over The Markets!"

Journalist Tarric Brooker and I discuss the latest data, as inflation reasserts itself, and higher for longer seems the play. We discuss the consequences for Australian households, and delve into the charts to understand what is really going on. Here is the link to Tarric’s slides:https://avidcom.substack.com/p/dfa-chart-pack-26th-april-2024 Here is the link to the recent discussion with … Continue reading "Does “Burnout Economics” Equal Stagflation? With Tarric Brooker…"

The value of stocks are driven partly by momentum, through perhaps we should really call this hopium, as its really investors betting with their gut, and the cold hard realities of financial results. Markets have been leveraged higher by rate cut expectations and the prospects of AI. But when the numbers come in at results … Continue reading "Looking Past Hopium Towards Real Numbers…"

The truth is that recent high rise construction in many Australian cities, are riddled with defects, and someone needs to pay for rectification. This surge in high-rise apartment construction happened as building certification was privatised, costs cut and poorly trained workers employed. As a result, we have a litany of increased building flaws and quality … Continue reading "The Crippling Highrise Disaster Continues…"

Rate cuts anytime this year in Australia, are now hanging by a thread, given the latest inflation data came in hotter than expected, despite the annual rate falling thanks to base effects from months ago, and some changes in the weightings. The upside surprise came via a smaller than expected fall in utilities, but stronger … Continue reading "More Inflation Shenanigans: Will The Next Rate Move Be Up, Not Down?"

This is an edited version of a live discussion, Adam Stokes, a crypto advocate in which we discussed the recent halving, and what may happen next. Last weekend marked the highly anticipated Bitcoin halving event, which reduces the supply of new coins. While the short-term impact may be muted, long-term investors remain optimistic due to … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: After The Halving: With Adam Stokes"

Once again, our Monday evening chat with property insider Edwin Almeida pulls apart the rubbish being spoken though official channels and gets to the heart of the issues facing property buyers, especially first time buyers. You could not make this stuff up!!! Apologies for glitches on the audio tonight, the connection to Edwin was steam … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

The combination of high prices and interest rates is seeing affordability become extremely stretched at a time when cost-of-living pressures more generally are also constraining incomes, according to a recent Westpac Survey. In response, would-be buyers are pushing the timing of their planned purchases back – less than 10% expect to transact in the next … Continue reading "Property Buyers’ Plans Destroyed By “Higher For Longer” Rate Trends!"

This is our weekly market update. Another crazy week on markets, as geo-political worries collided with the stronger “higher for longer to fight sticky inflation” mantra, and big-tech looking over-valued. The brief latest flare-up in Middle East tensions seemed contained with a flight to bonds, gold and the US dollar waning. Oil fell. The Dow … Continue reading "Grab A Seat Belt As Market Volatility Shakes Confidence And Prices!"