Probable Causation

Crystal Yang talks about her research on the accreditation of jail-based health care. “The Hidden Health Care Crisis Behind Bars: A Randomized Trial to Accredit U.S. Jails” by Marcella Alsan and Crystal Yang. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Impact of hospital accreditation on quality improvement in healthcare: A systematic review” by Mohammad J. Alhawajreh, Audrey S. Paterson, and William J. Jackson. “Improvement in quality of hospital care during accreditation: A nationwide stepped-wedge study" by Søren Bie Bogh, Anne Mette Falstie-Jensen, Erik Hollnagel, René Holst, Jeffrey Braithwaite, and Søren Paaske Johnsen. “Evaluating Accreditation” by Charles D. Shaw. "Mental Health and Criminal Involvement: Evidence from Losing Medicaid Eligibility" by Elisa Jácome. Probable Causation Episode 60: Elisa Jácome. "In-Kind Welfare Benefits and Reincarceration Risk: Evidence from Medicaid" by Marguerite Burns and Laura Dague. Probable Causation Episode 103: Marguerite Burns and Laura Dague. "Access to health Care and Criminal Behavior: Evidence form the ACA Medicaid Expansions" by Jacob Vogler. "The Effect of Medicaid Expansion on Crime Reduction: Evidence from HIFA-Waiver Expansions" by Hefei Wen, Jason M. Hockenberry, and Janet R. Cummings. “The Health Effects of Prison” by Randi Hjalmarsson and Matthew J. Lindquist. Probable Causation Episode 41: Matthew Lindquist. “The Effect of Incarceration on Mortality" by Samuel Norris, Matthew Pecenco, and Jeffrey Weaver.

Steve Mello talks the long-term financial impacts of small criminal justice fines. “Fines and Financial Wellbeing” by Steven Mello. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "Report on the economic well-being of U.S. households in 2017" by Jeff Larrimore, Alex Durante, Kimberly Kreiss, Christina Park, and Claudia Sahm. "Criminalizing poverty: The consequences of court fees in a randomized experiment" by Devah Pager, Rebecca Goldstein, Helen Ho, and Bruce Western. "The Government Revenue, Recidivism, and Financial Health Effects of Criminal Fines and Fees" by Tyler Giles. "The Impact of Criminal Financial Sanctions: A Multi-State Analysis of Survey and Administrative Data" by Keith Finlay, Matthew Gross, Carl Lieberman, Elizabeth Luh, and Michael Mueller-Smith.

Rachel Nesbit talks about the effects of mandating mental health treatment for probationers. “The Role of Mandated Mental Health Treatment in the Criminal Justice System” by Rachel Nesbit. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Calgary Diversion Program: A Community-Based Alternative to Incarceration for Mentally Ill Offenders” by Craig Mitton, Liz Simpson, Leslie Gardner, Fran Barnes, and Gerald McDougall. “Mental Health Treatment and Criminal Justice Outcomes” by Richard G. Frank and Thomas G. McGuire. “Thinking, Fast and Slow? Some Field Experiments to Reduce Crime and Dropout in Chicago" by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Harold A. Pollack. “Effectiveness of Using Incentives to Improve Parolee Admission and Attendance in Community Addiction Treatment” by Michael L. Prendergast, Elizabeth A. Hall, Jason Grossman, Robert Veliz, Liliana Gregorio, Umme S. Warda, Kory Van Unen, and Chloe Knight. “A Randomized Trial of the Effectiveness of Using Incentives to Reinforce Parolee Attendance in Community Addiction Treatment: Impact on Post-treatment Outcomes” by Elizabeth A. Hall, Michael L. Prendergast, and Umme Warda. “A Randomized Trial of Probation Case Management for Drug-involved Women Offenders” by Joseph Guydish, Monica Chan, Alan Bostrom, Martha A. Jessup, Thomas B. Davis, and Cheryl Marsh. “The First 90 Days Following Release from Jail: Findings from the Recovery Management Checkups for Women Offenders (RMCWO) Experiment” by Christy K. Scott and Michael L. Dennis. "Can Recidivism Be Prevented From Behind Bars? Evidence From a Behavioral Program" by William Arbour. Probable Causation Episode 102: William Arbour. “Reducing the Burden of Mental Illness on the Criminal Justice System: Evidence from Light-Touch Outreach” by Mary Kate Batistich, William N. Evans and David C. Phillips. Probable Causation Episode 67: David Phillips. “Mental Health and Criminal Involvement: Evidence from Losing Medicaid Eligibility” by Elisa Jácome. Probable Causation Episode 60: Elisa Jácome. "In-Kind Welfare Benefits and Reincarceration Risk: Evidence from Medicaid" by Marguerite Burns and Laura Dague. Probable Causation Episode 103: Marguerite Burns and Laura Dague.

Peter Hull talks about the effects of a jail-based education program called IGNITE. “'Something Works' in U.S. Jails: Misconduct and Recidivism Effects of the IGNITE Program” by Marcella Alsan, Arkey Barnett, Peter Hull, and Crystal Yang. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “What Works? Questions and Answers about Prison Reform” by Robert Martinson. “Incarceration, Recidivism, and Employment” by Manudeep Bhuller, Gordon B. Dahl, Katrine V. Løken, and Magne Mogstad. “Thinking, Fast and Slow? Some Field Experiments to Reduce Crime and Dropout in Chicago” by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Harold A. Pollack.

Abi Adams talks about economic abuse as it relates to intimate partner violence. “The Dynamics of Abusive Relationships” by Abi Adams, Kristiina Huttunen, Emily Nix, and Ning Zhang. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "Motherhood and Violence" by Gabriela Deschamps. "Female empowerment and male backlash: Experimental evidence from India" by Claire Cullen, Sarthak Joshi, Joseph Vecci, and Julia Talbot-Jones. "The Unintended Impacts of an Intimate Partner Violence Prevention Program: Experimental Evidence from Rwanda" by Claire Cullen, Arthur Alik-Lagrange, Mũthoni Ngatia, and Julia Vaillant. "Method Matters: The Underreporting of Intimate Partner Violence" by Claire Cullen. "Violence against Women at Work" by Abi Adams, Kristiina Huttunen, Emily Nix, and Ning Zhang. "The Economic Cost of Rape" by Abi Adams, Kristiina Huttunen, Emily Nix, and Ning Zhang. [Available from the authors.]

Alex Albright talks about money bail and the effects of bail reform. “No Money Bail, No Problems? Trade-offs in a Pretrial Automatic Release Program” by Alex Albright. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Tripping through Hoops: The Effect of Violating Compulsory Government Procedures” by Natalia Emanuel and Helen Ho. “The Effects of Pretrial Detention on Conviction, Future Crime, and Employment: Evidence from Randomly Assigned Judges” by Will Dobbie, Jacob Goldin, and Crystal S. Yang. “Distortion of Justice: How the Inability to Pay Bail Affects Case Outcomes” by Megan T. Stevenson. “The Unintended Impact of Pretrial Detention on Case Outcomes: Evidence from New York City Arraignments” by Emily Leslie and Nolan G. Pope. “The Heavy Costs of High Bail: Evidence from Judge Randomization” by Arpit Gupta, Christopher Hansman, and Ethan Frenchman. “Optimal Bail and the Value of Freedom: Evidence from the Philadelphia Bail Experiment” by David S. Abrams and Chris Rohlfs. “Does Cash Bail Deter Misconduct?” by Aurelie Ouss and Megan T. Stevenson. Episode 4 of Probable Causation: Megan Stevenson. “Behavioral Nudges Reduce Failure to Appear for Court” by Alissa Fishbane, Aurelie Ouss, and Anuj K. Shah. Episode 21 of Probable Causation: Aurelie Ouss. “The Impact of Defense Counsel at Bail Hearings” by Shamena Anwar, Shawn D. Bushway, and John Engberg. “Pursuing Pretrial Justice Through an Alternative to Bail” by Melanie Skemer, Cindy Redcross, and Howard Bloom. “Release, Detain, or Surveil? The Effect of Electronic Monitoring on Defendant Outcomes” by Roman Rivera.

Roman Rivera talks about the effects of electronic monitoring for US pretrial defendants. “Release, Detain, or Surveil? The Effect of Electronic Monitoring on Defendant Outcomes” by Roman Rivera. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "The Effects of Pretrial Detention on Conviction, Future Crime, and Employment: Evidence from Randomly Assigned Judges" by Will Dobbie, Jacob Goldin, and Crystal S. Yang. “Criminal Recidivism after Prison and Electronic Monitoring” by Rafael Di Tella and Ernesto Schargrodsky. “Better at Home Than in Prison? The Effects of Electronic Monitoring on Recidivism in France” by Anaïs Henneguelle, Benjamin Monnery, and Annie Kensey. “Can Electronic Monitoring Reduce Reoffending?” by Jenny Williams and Don Weatherburn. Probable Causation Episode 79: Jenny Williams. “The Effects of Electronic Monitoring on Offenders and Their Families" by Julien Grenet, Hans Grönqvist, and Susan Niknami. "Human Decisions and Machine Predictions" by Jon Kleinberg, Himabindu Lakkaraju, Jure Leskovec, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan. "Algorithmic Risk Assessments and the Double-Edged Sword of Youth" by Megan T. Stevenson and Christopher Slobogin. "The Effects of Parental and Sibling Incarceration: Evidence from Ohio" by Samuel Norris, Matthew Pecenco, and Jeffrey Weaver.

Aurélie Ouss talks about how changing who pays for incarceration affects sentencing decisions. “Misaligned incentives and the scale of incarceration in the United States” by Aurélie Ouss. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: The Collapse of American Criminal Justice by William J. Stuntz. "The rise in the disability rolls and the decline in unemployment" by David H. Autor and Mark G. Duggan. "Incentives to provide local public goods: fiscal federalism, Russian style" by Ekaterina Zhuravskaya. "Political Economy at Any Speed: What Determines Traffic Citations?" by Michael D. Makowsky and Thomas Stratmann. "Local Government Dependence on Criminal Justice Revenue and Emerging Constraints" by Shannon R.Graham and Michael D.Makowsky. "More Tickets, Fewer Accidents: How Cash-Strapped Towns Make for Safer Roads" by Michael D. Makowsky and Thomas Stratmann. "To Serve and Collect: The Fiscal and Racial Determinants of Law Enforcement" by Michael D. Makowsky, Thomas Stratmann, and Alex Tabarrok. "Finders keepers: forfeiture laws, policing incentives, and local budgets" by Katherine Baicker and Mireille Jacobson. "When Punishment Doesn’t Pay: Cold Glow and Decisions to Punish" by Aurélie Ouss and Alexander Peysakhovich. "Correctional ‘Free Lunch’? Cost Neglect Increases Punishment in Prosecutors" by Eyal Aharoni, Heather M. Kleider-Offutt, and Sarah F. Brosnan. "Organizational structure, police activity and crime" by Itai Ater, Yehonatan Givati, and Oren Rigbi. "Incarceration and Crime: Evidence from California’s Public Safety Realignment Reform" by Magnus Lofstrom and Steven Raphael. "Impacts of Private Prison Contracting on Inmate Time Served and Recidivism" by Anita Mukherjee.

Anjali Adukia talks about how using restorative justice practices in schools affects student behavior. “From Retributive to Restorative: An Alternative Approach to Justice in Schools” by Anjali Adukia, Benjamin Feigenberg, and Fatemeh Momeni. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Breaking Schools’ Rules: A Statewide Study of How School Discipline Relates to Students’ Success and Juvenile Justice Involvement" by Tony Fabelo, Michael D. Thompson, Martha Plotkin, Dottie Carmichael, Miner P. Marchbanks, and Eric A. Booth. “Racial Disparities in School Suspension and Subsequent Outcomes" by Tracey L. Shollenberger. “School Suspensions and Adverse Experiences in Adulthood" by Kerrin C. Wolf and Aaron Kupchik. “The School to Prison Pipeline: Long-Run Impacts of School Suspensions on Adult Crime" by Andrew Bacher-Hicks, Stephen B. Billings, and David J. Deming. “Rethinking Universal Suspension for Severe Student Behavior" by Rebecca Hinze-Pifer and Lauren Sartain. “Discipline Reform, School Culture, and Student Achievement" by Ashley C. Craig and David Martin. “Suspending Suspensions: The Education Production Consequences of School Suspension Policies" by Nolan Pope and George Zuo. “Can Restorative Justice Conferencing Reduce Recidivism? Evidence From the Make-it-Right Program" by Yotam Shem-Tov, Steven Raphael, and Alissa Skog. "Can Restorative Practices Improve School Climate and Curb Suspensions? An Evaluation of the Impact of Restorative Practices in a Mid-Sized Urban School District" by Catherine Augustine, John Engberg, Geoffrey Grimm, Emma Lee, Elaine Wang, Karen Christianson, and Andrea Joseph. “Evaluation of a Whole-School Change Intervention: Findings from a Two-Year Cluster-Randomized Trial of the Restorative Practices Intervention" by Joie Acosta, Matthew Chinman, Patricia Ebener, Patrick S. Malone, Andrea Phillips, and Asa Wilks.

Ariel White talks about the effect of short jail spells on subsequent voting behavior. This episode was first posted in October 2019. "Misdemeanor Disenfranchisement? The Demobilizing Effects of Brief Jail Spells on Potential Voters" by Ariel White. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "Turnout and Party Registration among Criminal Offenders in the 2008 General Election" by Traci Burch "Did Disfranchisement Laws Help Elect President Bush? New Evidence on the Turnout Rates and Candidate Preferences of Florida’s Ex-Felons" by Traci Burch "Political Consequences of the Carceral State" by Vesla M. Weaver and Amy E. Lerman "Arresting Citizenship: The Democratic Consequences of American Crime Control" by Amy E. Lerman and Vesla M. Weaver "Does Incarceration Reduce Voting? Evidence about the Political Consequences of Spending Time in Prison" by Alan S. Gerber, Gregory A. Huber, Marc Meredith, Daniel R. Biggers, and David J. Hendry "The Criminal and Labor Market Impacts of Incarceration" by Michael Mueller-Smith "Locking Up the Vote? Evidence from Vermont on Voting from Prison" by Ariel White and Avery Nguyen